As India gears up for Diwali 2025, gold and silver have already dazzled the markets, surging over 47% and over 52% so far this year, respectively. With prices recently breaching Rs 1,18,000 per 10 grams on the MCX, investors are now eyeing whether the precious metal has more room to run—especially with the festive season around the corner.
Market experts suggest the rally may be far from over, with gold potentially rising to Rs 1.22 lakh as early as Diwali.
The momentum behind gold and silver has remained strong in 2025, supported by a cocktail of bullish global and domestic triggers. Festive demand, dovish central bank policies, geopolitical concerns, and continued ETF inflows have all helped push prices to record levels.
Silver, too, has joined the rally, trading above Rs 1.44 lakh per kg and potentially headed toward Rs 1.50 lakh by the festival of lights.
Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, expects the market to enter a “bullish-to-consolidation phase” by Diwali, rather than a deep correction. She points out that the sharp rise over the past nine months could prompt some investors to book short-term profits, but the broader trend remains intact.
“Gold has surged past Rs 1,18,000 on MCX while silver trades above Rs 1,44,000, supported by safe-haven demand amid the US government shutdown, tariff uncertainty, and expectations of further Fed rate cuts,” Chainani told ETMarkets.
How much higher can gold and silver rally by Diwali 2025?
Chainani estimates that by Diwali (October 21), gold could trade between $3950–$4000 internationally (Rs 1,20,000–Rs 1,22,000 on MCX), while silver could test $49–$50 (Rs 1,48,000–Rs 1,50,000), especially if geopolitical risks escalate.
She adds that “key drivers of bullishness include dovish Fed policy, a weaker US dollar, continued ETF inflows, and robust Indian festive demand.”
Silver, in particular, could benefit from rising industrial and green-energy-related demand. That said, she cautions that consolidation could be triggered by profit-taking, a stronger dollar, or easing geopolitical tensions.
Echoing a similar view, Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research highlights that the September rally, where gold rose over 10% and silver surged 15% in international markets, has placed both metals in a "super bull run."
In his advisory, Jain noted: “Gold and silver are in a super bull run this year due to strong fundamentals. Global central banks buying, increased demand from ETF investors, geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty is supportive of safe-haven buying for both precious metals.”
He expects gold to test Rs 1,22,000 by Diwali and Rs 1,25,000 by year-end, while silver may hit Rs 1,50,000 by Diwali and Rs 1,58,000–Rs 1,60,000 by December.
In international markets, Jain sees gold testing $3940–$4000 and silver testing $48.40–$50 per troy ounce. Support levels for gold stand at $3720 internationally and Rs 1,10,660 domestically, while silver has support at $44.40 and Rs 1,34,400, respectively.
Jain advises investors to remain bullish: “We suggest buying gold and silver on dips for the target of Rs 1,22,000 and Rs 1,50,000, respectively and avoid any kind of short selling in both precious metals.”
With Diwali just weeks away, demand from jewellers and retail buyers is expected to pick up further. Historically, India’s peak buying season for gold coincides with the festive and wedding seasons, which can provide another leg up to prices already fueled by global macroeconomic uncertainties.
While the recent gains may tempt some to lock in profits, analysts agree the underlying fundamentals remain strong, and dips, if any, are likely to be short-lived.
Also read: Goldman Sachs' Rs 10,000 crore India portfolio: 4 stocks rally 50-155% in 1 year
Offering a similar view, Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst - Currencies & Commodities at Reliance Securities, said, “By Diwali 2025, gold may trade around Rs 1,19,000– Rs1,20,000/10g, driven by global uncertainties, central bank buying, high inflation, Fed stance and a weaker rupee. Safe-haven demand is strong as geopolitical tensions and economic slowdown fears persist.”
He further noted that silver could reach Rs 1,48,000–Rs 1,50,000/kg, supported by industrial use, especially in solar energy and EVs, along with investment demand.
“Supply constraints and a falling rupee further fuel price momentum. With interest rates expected to fall globally, precious metals may gain. However, high volatility and profit-booking can cause short dips. Overall, both metals show a bullish outlook for Diwali 2025 in rupee terms, supported by macroeconomic trends, weak INR, and robust investor interest in hard assets,” Trivedi added.
( Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Market experts suggest the rally may be far from over, with gold potentially rising to Rs 1.22 lakh as early as Diwali.
The momentum behind gold and silver has remained strong in 2025, supported by a cocktail of bullish global and domestic triggers. Festive demand, dovish central bank policies, geopolitical concerns, and continued ETF inflows have all helped push prices to record levels.
Silver, too, has joined the rally, trading above Rs 1.44 lakh per kg and potentially headed toward Rs 1.50 lakh by the festival of lights.
Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, expects the market to enter a “bullish-to-consolidation phase” by Diwali, rather than a deep correction. She points out that the sharp rise over the past nine months could prompt some investors to book short-term profits, but the broader trend remains intact.
“Gold has surged past Rs 1,18,000 on MCX while silver trades above Rs 1,44,000, supported by safe-haven demand amid the US government shutdown, tariff uncertainty, and expectations of further Fed rate cuts,” Chainani told ETMarkets.
How much higher can gold and silver rally by Diwali 2025?
Chainani estimates that by Diwali (October 21), gold could trade between $3950–$4000 internationally (Rs 1,20,000–Rs 1,22,000 on MCX), while silver could test $49–$50 (Rs 1,48,000–Rs 1,50,000), especially if geopolitical risks escalate.
She adds that “key drivers of bullishness include dovish Fed policy, a weaker US dollar, continued ETF inflows, and robust Indian festive demand.”
Silver, in particular, could benefit from rising industrial and green-energy-related demand. That said, she cautions that consolidation could be triggered by profit-taking, a stronger dollar, or easing geopolitical tensions.
Echoing a similar view, Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research highlights that the September rally, where gold rose over 10% and silver surged 15% in international markets, has placed both metals in a "super bull run."
In his advisory, Jain noted: “Gold and silver are in a super bull run this year due to strong fundamentals. Global central banks buying, increased demand from ETF investors, geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty is supportive of safe-haven buying for both precious metals.”
He expects gold to test Rs 1,22,000 by Diwali and Rs 1,25,000 by year-end, while silver may hit Rs 1,50,000 by Diwali and Rs 1,58,000–Rs 1,60,000 by December.
In international markets, Jain sees gold testing $3940–$4000 and silver testing $48.40–$50 per troy ounce. Support levels for gold stand at $3720 internationally and Rs 1,10,660 domestically, while silver has support at $44.40 and Rs 1,34,400, respectively.
Jain advises investors to remain bullish: “We suggest buying gold and silver on dips for the target of Rs 1,22,000 and Rs 1,50,000, respectively and avoid any kind of short selling in both precious metals.”
With Diwali just weeks away, demand from jewellers and retail buyers is expected to pick up further. Historically, India’s peak buying season for gold coincides with the festive and wedding seasons, which can provide another leg up to prices already fueled by global macroeconomic uncertainties.
While the recent gains may tempt some to lock in profits, analysts agree the underlying fundamentals remain strong, and dips, if any, are likely to be short-lived.
Also read: Goldman Sachs' Rs 10,000 crore India portfolio: 4 stocks rally 50-155% in 1 year
Offering a similar view, Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst - Currencies & Commodities at Reliance Securities, said, “By Diwali 2025, gold may trade around Rs 1,19,000– Rs1,20,000/10g, driven by global uncertainties, central bank buying, high inflation, Fed stance and a weaker rupee. Safe-haven demand is strong as geopolitical tensions and economic slowdown fears persist.”
He further noted that silver could reach Rs 1,48,000–Rs 1,50,000/kg, supported by industrial use, especially in solar energy and EVs, along with investment demand.
“Supply constraints and a falling rupee further fuel price momentum. With interest rates expected to fall globally, precious metals may gain. However, high volatility and profit-booking can cause short dips. Overall, both metals show a bullish outlook for Diwali 2025 in rupee terms, supported by macroeconomic trends, weak INR, and robust investor interest in hard assets,” Trivedi added.
( Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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