Worse trade outcomes possible if uncertainty spreads globally, warns WTO

New Delhi: Global goods trade posted a strong uptick in early 2025 but weakening export orders suggest that this momentum may not be sustained, the World Trade Organisation ( WTO) Thursday said in its Goods Trade Barometer. The uptick was driven by importers frontloading purchases ahead of anticipated higher tariffs.

The barometer rose to 103.5 up from 102.8 in March while the forward-looking new export orders index fell to 97.9 pointing to weaker trade growth later in the year. The barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends.

Year-on-year growth in the world merchandise trade turned positive the fourth quarter of 2023 and strengthened in 2024 as falling inflation and lower interest rates boosted real incomes and consumption.

“Year-on-year trade growth eased in the fourth quarter of 2024 but new trade volume indices set for release in July are
expected to show a rebound in Q1,” WTO said.

The Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report of April predicted stable merchandise trade growth of 2.7% in 2025 under a low-tariff baseline scenario, and a decline of 0.2% in an adjusted forecast reflecting
higher tariffs and rising trade policy uncertainty.

“Policy shifts since April have nudged the forecast up and down, but worse outcomes are still possible if uncertainty spreads globally,” it said.