Metal prices are likely to lift up the wholesale inflation in the upcoming months, a report by Union Bank of India said. Despite the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) falling to a 13-month low of 0.85% in April 2025, metals have continued to show a steady month-on-month rise, suggesting a potential rebound in price pressures.
Core WPI, which excludes food and fuel components, eased to 1.40% in April from 1.59% in March, the report said. However, the rise in prices of metals, especially iron and steel, played a major role in cushioning the overall decline.
“While food prices are expected to firm up in the next couple of months, metal prices may keep an upward pressure on WPI,” the report said, quoted by ANI.
Notably, this domestic uptick came despite global metal indices showing a softer trend, which the report attributed to a possible lag in how price changes filter through various sub-sectors of the economy.
Within the core WPI basket, several segments recorded a month-on-month rise, including chemicals and chemical products, fabricated metal goods (excluding machinery and equipment), machinery and equipment, and other manufactured items. On the other hand, sectors such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, and paper and paper products saw prices dip.
The fall in overall WPI was mainly due to the sharp decline in fuel prices. The fuel index remained deep in the red, slipping further to -4.35% in April from -1.10% in March. This was attributed to a slump in global oil prices, fuelled by rising fears of a recession.
The report predicted wholesale inflation to remain vulnerable to movements in food and commodity prices, particularly metals and oil, which have started climbing again following the recent US-China trade deal.
“Going forward, trends in WPI are likely to be led by sequential rise in food prices along with commodity prices (especially oil and metals) which are on sequential pickup post US-China trade deal,” the report said.
Though food inflation in the CPI remains on a downward path, wholesale food prices have begun rising again, indicating that inflationary pressures could return in the near term.
Core WPI, which excludes food and fuel components, eased to 1.40% in April from 1.59% in March, the report said. However, the rise in prices of metals, especially iron and steel, played a major role in cushioning the overall decline.
“While food prices are expected to firm up in the next couple of months, metal prices may keep an upward pressure on WPI,” the report said, quoted by ANI.
Notably, this domestic uptick came despite global metal indices showing a softer trend, which the report attributed to a possible lag in how price changes filter through various sub-sectors of the economy.
Within the core WPI basket, several segments recorded a month-on-month rise, including chemicals and chemical products, fabricated metal goods (excluding machinery and equipment), machinery and equipment, and other manufactured items. On the other hand, sectors such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, and paper and paper products saw prices dip.
The fall in overall WPI was mainly due to the sharp decline in fuel prices. The fuel index remained deep in the red, slipping further to -4.35% in April from -1.10% in March. This was attributed to a slump in global oil prices, fuelled by rising fears of a recession.
The report predicted wholesale inflation to remain vulnerable to movements in food and commodity prices, particularly metals and oil, which have started climbing again following the recent US-China trade deal.
“Going forward, trends in WPI are likely to be led by sequential rise in food prices along with commodity prices (especially oil and metals) which are on sequential pickup post US-China trade deal,” the report said.
Though food inflation in the CPI remains on a downward path, wholesale food prices have begun rising again, indicating that inflationary pressures could return in the near term.
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